Looking at the euro-dollar today we see that we are in wave 4 on the bearish correction Wave A on bigger TF, I believe we have not completed it. My rules are that I only enter a wave 5 entry if wave 4 reversed between 38.2% to 50% retracement. If we used a Fibonacci tool from wave 2 to wave 3 we see that wave 4 has not reached 38.2%. That why I believe it will go up to min 1.18394 after that it will depend on the counting of the wave (y), this is a complex wave 4 so trade carefully. This option will be invalidated once we pass the end of wave 3.
OPTION #2 shows that we are already in wave 5 of wave A in a bigger time frame, so wave 4 did end before reaching 38.2 % retracement of 2-3. Wave 5 should end between 1.15129 – 1.12986, that is 100% – 161.8% extension of wave 4. After that, we should see 3 waves up to form B leg, then down again to complete c leg of the zig-zag pattern. So basically we should be bearish for most of 2018.
My own advice: is to wait and see if the price will break past wave 3 in option two because that what will invalidate option 1 then we can focus on selling till the end of wave 5. If it doesn’t we can look for entries in the bullish direction. Or if you are not sure in the market waiting for wave 5 to complete and buy start of wave B is not be a bad idea. Remember not trading is better than trading while unsure and lose the trade. If you liked this analysis please share this post.